The following discussion, found in the PokerEDGE Community Forum, helps to understand the PokerEDGE Pre-Flop Cold Call stat, PFCC.
Click here to try PokerEDGE, it is available with a 5-day free trial. R. Steve McCollum
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I have about 1,000 hands tracked playing .05/.10 NL with a $10 buy in. I have read a few different books where they say to cold call a raise with suited connectors and low to mid pocket pairs as long as you are not commiting more than 10% of your chips to the call. This has never seemed to be a winning game strategy for me. Nor does the math seem to add up to me either. So here are my questions, and then my thoughts. What are yours?
1. My PFCC is about 8% where should I be on this number?
2. Do you think cold calling with pocket pairs, going for trips, is a good idea?
3. Do you think cold calling with suited connectors is a good idea?
4. If you were going to cold call a raise, would it make more sense to cold call someone who has a low preflop raise percentage or someone who has a high preflop raise percentage? (see below)
So here is my thinking on it. Using pocket pairs for example because the math is easier. I think the usual situation for a raised pot would be a raiser with me and one other caller. With .05/.10 blinds the usual raise is around .40. To hit trips on the flop is a 1 & 8 chance. So 7 times out of 8 I will miss the flop and lose 2.80. 1 time out of 8 I will hit my trips and will have to win an extra 2.80 not including my own money just to break even. So including my money I invest in the pot I have to win a pot of atleast 5.60 to break even. When the buy in is $10 this does not seem very reliable. Especially when you factor in the times you will hit trips and lose a big pot to a higher set, a flush, or a straight.
I know Doyle says he likes to cold call a raise with pocket pairs and suited connectors because if someone has a big hand you can win a big pot against them when you hit your cards. With that in mind, wouldn't it make more sense to cold call someone who has a low preflop raise percentage rather than someone who has a high preflop raise percentage. My first thought on this would be to call the loose preflop raiser, but those guys could have anything and therefore be less likely to get involved in a big pot with trash. Whereas someone who is a tight preflop raiser you know he has a big hand so it seems like it would be harder for them to get away from the hand.
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Bluffer, I will try to cover most of your questions here but it may seem a little scattered as you are reading through...
Before you look at percentages, odds, aggressive plays, passive plays, etc you have to ask yourself one very fundamental question...one that you should ask yourself before every single move within the game. Why am I making this play? Are you cold calling because you read it in a book or because you see value in making that play? Are you cold calling to hit a set, straight, etc? Are you making the move to trap someone with a big hand? Who are you cold calling? blah blah blah
Is 8% good? Is 27% good? Is 1% good? Yes, yes, and yes. (well, maybe not so much on the 27%) Many successful players that I have seen have a PFR of more than 60% of their vp and the pfcc is almost always less than their pfr. For example: vp 14.3, pfr 10.2(more than 60%), pfcc, 5.4(less than pfr). You may have a higher vp or lower vp than that and all are good depending on the style which you are trying to play. But, you always have to ask yourself why am I making this play? ALWAYS! Sometimes, it may be correct to cold call with aces and others it may be very wrong. Everything is situational and the whys of the actions are always dependent on the situation. I can't recall how many times I have seen pros on tv griping about how they should still be in the tournament if they controlled the table better. If you have or take control things will likely happen as you want them to happen but you have to maintain that control while looking like you are not in control. In other words, look reckless, but don't be reckless.
You understand the math of the cold call and can see how those smaller pocket pairs can cost you money so I won't go into that. But when you are set mining, playing sc's, or whatever, you have to remember that their are two ways to win - by showdown or through aggression. It is important to realize how those two situations come about and that is found in the words preceding the event - by and through. By - meaning you did not control the situation. And through - meaning your plays caused the others to cede the hand to you. It is very important to keep these terms separate - by and through - even though they sometimes seem to meld together on the tables.
Also, don't play a hand because you are due to make a set or whatever. The deck, the dealer, the other players are not concerned with the fact that this is your twelfth pocket pair without making a set...one in eight means nothing in the short term. If the situation is not correct then don't play it. If it is correct, play it for a certain reason.
To look into your fourth question I will use 77 as my sample hand facing a raise with position.
Scenario 1
Opponent (pfr 4.3) makes standard raise and you have three options: call, raise, or fold. Before making this decision you have to answer the following:
- Are there any other callers? If yes, your potential payoff is larger.
- What is the opponent(s) aggression stats, Flsee-SDsee stats? Is he calling to the river, redfish, etc?
- Have I noticed any tendencies about this player? Does he always c-bet, and check the turn? If so, I can steal it on the turn.
- Am I comfortable playing in this hand? Maybe, maybe not
- What is the table's perception of me? Always dependent and changing.
- What is he likely holding? This is the last question for a reason. Your cards and his cards only matter at showdown. If he is raising 4.3 and is aggressive on the flop but an ace comes and he checks he could have KK, QQ, JJ...or maybe even AA (but that depends on my reads) and he might cede the hand to my "made" ace. Or I could be drawing to running 7's. Yikes!
So, preflop I am very likely behind and am, at best, a coin flip so my real choices are call or fold because I don't believe a reraise will induce a a fold and I also think I need some help to win. After the flop, I have to ask these similar questions again.
Scenario 2
Opponent (pfr 19.9) makes his standard bet preflop. Same decisions, same questions. But the answer could be very different. Maybe the opponent folds to reraises easily. Maybe he is just blindly aggressive. Maybe he's this, or that. In the end, do you think you are ahead, and if so do you think he will call with any two. Most would agree that you are likely ahead at the moment so folding is the wrong choice. So, you are left with two choices...raise or fold. 77's against any two over cards is about a 54% favorite, One over card 69%, under pair 80%, two under cards 79%, and over pair 20%. So, raise or fold? the choice is yours but don't forget to ask why!
So, is 8% good? you tell me.
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bluffer72 wrote:
I have read a few different books where they say to cold call a raise with suited connectors and low to mid pocket pairs as long as you are not commiting more than 10% of your chips to the call.
this is a fairly common idea and seems to be agreed upon by lots of very good players
| Quote: |
| 2. Do you think cold calling with pocket pairs, going for trips, is a good idea?. |
well that depends on quite a few different things
1. how many bb's do you have if you have 100 bb's yes, if you have 25 bb's then no, to set mine profitably you need to have 100 bb's behind, or more is even better, some experts even recommend as many as 200 bb's behind, so deep stacked
2. if you can win 20 times the current bet, then yes. if you can only win 10 times the current bet then no, so set mining will also be based on your opponents stack size as well as your own, thats where you need the implied odds
3. will your opponent pay you off.........? if you can't get paid off by a very tight opponent, that makes set mining vs. that opponent pry bad
4. how well do you play after the flop? can you win the hand if you don't hit your set?
just some of the things to take into consideration if you want to set mine with you pairs
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| bluffer72 wrote: |
I know Doyle says he likes to cold call a raise with pocket pairs and suited connectors because if someone has a big hand you can win a big pot against them when you hit your cards. |
he is talking about deep stack play here
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Doyle is also talking about live play. On-line is a total different animal IMO.
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You guys have posted some interesting thoughts and info. I'm not still not sure of what the correct answer for me is. Here are some of my responses to what was written.
I'm not cold calling because some book said you should. I'm cold calling because I have read this is a profitable play. That as long as you aren't calling more than 10% of your stack then you will win more money by cold calling as oppossed to just folding preflop. If this is a profitable piece of the puzzle then I want to add it to my repetoire. However, I don't see it as being profitable to me. So either 1. I'm playing it wrong or 2. Its not the right play in the first place. I see the potential for value in cold calling to win a big pot with trips or 2 pair, a str8, flush etc. But I'm not seeing the results, and when I play it out in my head it doesn't make sense to me.
Powernewf: My VPIP is 22%, PFRaise is 8%, and PFCC is 8%. If you can see any flaws in that let me know, but I think you are saying there is not a set correct answer just in the numbers. I definetly don't believe that I am ever "due" for a hand so I have never played that way.
Boot: In a pot not raised by me I don't play well without having a made hand. This is probably my weakest point. Very seldomly am I able to win the hand if I dont catch my set or two pair. I can do well with my str8 draw and flush draws, but if I just have one pair I'm pretty much giving up the pot because I don't really have that particular skill of taking the pot from someone at that point. And I find it difficult to get a feel for where the player is at if I'm not the aggressor.
Up to this point I have been cold calling anyone as long as both of us have are not investing more than 10% of our stacks. So I haven't been taking into consideration any of their post flop stats into account. I'm thinking of changing this up. Basically still cold calling the right people and then using harrington's gap method on the rest. However, I don't know enough about which stats I should look for and what levels they should be before I feel the potential for gain is greater than the initial invenstment. Can you guys help me with this?
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22% is not tight or loose but with a 8% pfr you are controlling about 35% of the hands and, conversely, someone else is controlling 65%. You are likely comfortable with that range but I would suggest one of two things to do preflop. You could either tighten your range or increase the hands with which you pfr. You could also do both but that is not necessary. In doing this, you will increase the percentage of hands in which you are in control and thus your chances of winning.
One other thing, you should always be thinking about how you are going to win a particular hand, and you should be thinking about how you can win post flop at the pre flop stage. That way, you can have a plan and be able to act as opposed to only react. But if you are thinking if this specific thing happens then I will do this, if not that then you will be better prepared for the post flop game. This or that happening could be certain cards, actions by others, or whatever...but you need a plan that is more than numbers.
After you get some more hands in, perhaps you should post your stats.
Also, I believe the 10% initial commitment of your stack only applies if you believe you will get their entire stack. If you are paying 3:1 to make an 8:1 hand then it is going to cost you more than the hand is worth than the money you are going to make from it...this lines blurs a little when taking into consideration implied odds.
_____________________________________________________________________________________ Copyright 2009 R. Steve McCollum
